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progress　of　historical　criticism；　and　the　first　scientific　treatise

on　the　science　of　comparative　politics。



A　few　fragments　still　remain　to　us；　in　one　of　which　we　find

Aristotle　appealing　to　the　authority　of　an　ancient　inscription　on

the　'Disk　of　Iphitus；'　one　of　the　most　celebrated　Greek

antiquities；　to　corroborate　his　theory　of　the　Lycurgean　revival　of

the　Olympian　festival；　while　his　enormous　research　is　evinced　in

the　elaborate　explanation　he　gives　of　the　historical　origin　of

proverbs　such　as　＇Greek　text　which　cannot　be　reproduced＇；　of

religious　songs　like　the　＇Greek　text　which　cannot　be　reproduced＇　of

the　Botticean　virgins；　or　the　praises　of　love　and　war。



And；　finally；　it　is　to　be　observed　how　much　wider　than　Plato's　his

theory　of　the　origin　of　society　is。　　They　both　rest　on　a

psychological　basis；　but　Aristotle's　recognition　of　the　capacity

for　progress　and　the　tendency　towards　a　higher　life　shows　how　much

deeper　his　knowledge　of　human　nature　was。



In　imitation　of　these　two　philosophers；　Polybius　gives　an　account

of　the　origin　of　society　in　the　opening　to　his　philosophy　of

history。　　Somewhat　in　the　spirit　of　Plato；　he　imagines　that　after

one　of　the　cyclic　deluges　which　sweep　off　mankind　at　stated　periods

and　annihilate　all　pre…existing　civilisation；　the　few　surviving

members　of　humanity　coalesce　for　mutual　protection；　and；　as　in　the

case　with　ordinary　animals；　the　one　most　remarkable　for　physical

strength　is　elected　king。　　In　a　short　time；　owing　to　the　workings

of　sympathy　and　the　desire　of　approbation；　the　moral　qualities

begin　to　make　their　appearance；　and　intellectual　instead　of　bodily

excellence　becomes　the　qualification　for　sovereignty。



Other　points；　as　the　rise　of　law　and　the　like；　are　dwelt　on　in　a

somewhat　modern　spirit；　and　although　Polybius　seems　not　to　have

employed　the　inductive　method　of　research　in　this　question；　or

rather；　I　should　say；　of　the　hierarchical　order　of　the　rational

progress　of　ideas　in　life；　he　is　not　far　removed　from　what　the

laborious　investigations　of　modern　travellers　have　given　us。



And；　indeed；　as　regards　the　working　of　the　speculative　faculty　in

the　creation　of　history；　it　is　in　all　respects　marvellous　how　that

the　most　truthful　accounts　of　the　passage　from　barbarism　to

civilisation　in　ancient　literature　come　from　the　works　of　poets。

The　elaborate　researches　of　Mr。　Tylor　and　Sir　John　Lubbock　have

done　little　more　than　verify　the　theories　put　forward　in　the

PROMETHEUS　BOUND　and　the　DE　NATURA　RERUM；　yet　neither　AEschylus　nor

Lucretias　followed　in　the　modern　path；　but　rather　attained　to　truth

by　a　certain　almost　mystic　power　of　creative　imagination；　such　as

we　now　seek　to　banish　from　science　as　a　dangerous　power；　though　to

it　science　seems　to　owe　many　of　its　most　splendid　generalities。　（5）



Leaving　then　the　question　of　the　origin　of　society　as　treated　by

the　ancients；　I　shall　now　turn　to　the　other　and　the　more　important

question　of　how　far　they　may　he　said　to　have　attained　to　what　we

call　the　philosophy　of　history。



Now　at　the　outset　we　must　note　that；　while　the　conceptions　of　law

and　order　have　been　universally　received　as　the　governing

principles　of　the　phenomena　of　nature　in　the　sphere　of　physical

science；　yet　their　intrusion　into　the　domain　of　history　and　the

life　of　man　has　always　been　met　with　a　strong　opposition；　on　the

ground　of　the　incalculable　nature　of　two　great　forces　acting　on

human　action；　a　certain　causeless　spontaneity　which　men　call　free

will；　and　the　extra…natural　interference　which　they　attribute　as　a

constant　attribute　to　God。



Now；　that　there　is　a　science　of　the　apparently　variable　phenomena

of　history　is　a　conception　which　WE　have　perhaps　only　recently

begun　to　appreciate；　yet；　like　all　other　great　thoughts；　it　seems

to　have　come　to　the　Greek　mind　spontaneously；　through　a　certain

splendour　of　imagination；　in　the　morning　tide　of　their

civilisation；　before　inductive　research　had　armed　them　with　the

instruments　of　verification。　　For　I　think　it　is　possible　to　discern

in　some　of　the　mystic　speculations　of　the　early　Greek　thinkers　that

desire　to　discover　what　is　that　'invariable　existence　of　which

there　are　variable　states；'　and　to　incorporate　it　in　some　one

formula　of　law　which　may　serve　to　explain　the　different

manifestations　of　all　organic　bodies；　MAN　INCLUDED；　which　is　the

germ　of　the　philosophy　of　history；　the　germ　indeed　of　an　idea　of

which　it　is　not　too　much　to　say　that　on　it　any　kind　of　historical

criticism；　worthy　of　the　name；　must　ultimately　rest。



For　the　very　first　requisite　for　any　scientific　conception　of

history　is　the　doctrine　of　uniform　sequence：　　in　other　words；　that

certain　events　having　happened；　certain　other　events　corresponding

to　them　will　happen　also；　that　the　past　is　the　key　of　the　future。



Now　at　the　birth　of　this　great　conception　science；　it　is　true；

presided；　yet　religion　it　was　which　at　the　outset　clothed　it　in　its

own　garb；　and　familiarised　men　with　it　by　appealing　to　their　hearts

first　and　then　to　their　intellects；　knowing　that　at　the　beginning

of　things　it　is　through　the　moral　nature；　and　not　through　the

intellectual；　that　great　truths　are　spread。



So　in　Herodotus；　who　may　be　taken　as　a　representative　of　the

orthodox　tone　of　thought；　the　idea　of　the　uniform　sequence　of　cause

and　effect　appears　under　the　theological　aspect　of　Nemesis　and

Providence；　which　is　really　the　scientific　conception　of　law；　only

it　is　viewed　from　an　ETHICAL　standpoint。



Now　in　Thucydides　the　philosophy　of　history　rests　on　the

probability；　which　the　uniformity　of　human　nature　affords　us；　that

the　future　will　in　the　course　of　human　things　resemble　the　past；　if

not　reproduce　it。　　He　appears　to　contemplate　a　recurrence　of　the

phenomena　of　history　as　equally　certain　with　a　return　of　the

epidemic　of　the　Great　Plague。



Notwithstanding　what　German　critics　have　written　on　the　subject；　we

must　beware　of　regarding　this　conception　as　a　mere　reproduction　of

that　cyclic　theory　of　events　which　sees　in　the　world　nothing　but

the　regular　rotation　of　Strophe　and　Antistrophe；　in　the　eternal

choir　of　life　and　death。



For；　in　his　remarks　on　the　excesses　of　the　Corcyrean　Revolution；

Thucydides　distinctly　rests　his　idea　of　the　recurrence　of　history

on　the　psychological　grounds　of　the　general　sameness　of　mankind。



'The　sufferings；'　he　says；　'which　revolution　entailed　upon　the

cities　were　many　and　terrible；　such　as　have　occurred　and　always

will　occurs　as　long　as　human　nature　remains　the　same；　though　in　a

severer　or　milder　form；　and　varying　in　their　symptoms　according　to

the　variety　of　the　particular　cases。



'In　peace　and　prosperity　states　and　individuals　have　better

sentiments；　because　they　are　not　confronted　with　imperious

necessities；　but　war　takes　away　the　easy　supply　of　men's　wants；　and

so　proves　a　hard　taskmaster；　which　brings　most　men's　characters　to

a　level　with　their　fortunes。'







CHAPTER　IV







IT　is　evident　that　here　Thucydides　is　ready　to　admit　the　variety　of

manifestations　which　external　causes　bring　about　in　their　workings

on　the　uniform　character　of　the　nature　of　man。　　Yet；　after　all　is

said；　these　are　perhaps　but　very　general　statements：　　the　ordinary

effects　of　peace　and　war　are　dwelt　on；　but　there　is　no　real

analysis　of　the　immediate　causes　and　general　laws　of　the　phenomena

of　life；　nor　does　Thucydides　seem　to　recognise　the　truth　that　if

humanity　proceeds　in　circles；　the　circles　are　always　widening。



Perhaps　we　may　say　that　with　him　the　philosophy　of　history　is

partly　in　the　metaphysical　stage；　and　see；　in　the　progress　of　this

idea　from　Herodotus　to　Polybius；　the　exemplification　of　the　Comtian

Law　of　the　three　stages　of　thought；　the　theological；　the

metaphysical；　and　the　scientific：　　for　truly　out　of　the　vagueness

of　theological　mysticism　this　conception　which　we　call　the

Philosophy　of　History　was　raised　to　a　scientific　principle；

according　to　which　the　past　was　explained　and　the　future　predicted

by　reference　to　general　laws。



Now；　just　as　the　earliest　account　of　the　nature　of　the　progress　of

humanity　is　to　be　found　in　Plato；　so　in　him　we　find　the　first

explicit　attempt　to　found　a　universal　philosophy　of　history　upon

wide　rational　grounds。　　Having　created　an　ideally　perfect　state；

the　philosopher　proceeds　to　give　an　elaborate　theory　of　the　complex

causes　which　produce　revolutions；　of　the　moral　effects　of　various

forms　of　government　and　education；　of　the　rise　of　the　criminal

classes　and　their　connection　with　pauperism；　and；　in　a　word；　to

create　history　by　the　deductive　method　and　to　proceed　from　A　PRIORI

psychological　principles　to　discover　the　governing　laws　of　the

apparent　chaos　of　political　life。



There　have　been　many　attempts　since　Plato　to　deduce　from　a　single

philosophical　principle　all　the　phenomena　which　experience

subsequently　verifies　for　us。　　Fichte　thought　he　could　predict　the

world…plan　from　the　idea　of　universal　time。　　Hegel　dreamed　he　had

found　the　key　to　the　mysteries　of　life　in　the　development　of

freedom；　and　Krause　in　the　categories　of　being。　　But　the　one

scientific　basis　on　which　the　true　philosophy　of　history　must　rest

is　the　complete　knowledge　of　the　laws　of　human　nature　in　all　its

wants；　its　aspirations；　its　powers　and　its　tendencies：　　and　this

great　truth；　which　Thucydides　may　be　said　in　some　measure　to　have

apprehended；　was　given　to　us　first　by　Plato。



Now；　it　cannot　be　accurately　said　of　this　philosopher　that　either

his　philosophy　or　his　history　is　entirely　and　simply　A　PRIORI。　　ON

EST　DE　SON　SIECLE　MEME　QUAND　ON　Y　PROTESTE；　and　so　we　find　in　him

continual　references　to　the　Spartan　mode　of　life；　the　Pythagorean

system；　the　general　characteristics　of　Greek　tyrannies　and　Greek

democracies。　　For　while；　in　his　account　of　the　method　of　forming　an

ideal　state；　he　says　that　the　political　artist　is　indeed　to　fix　his

gaze　on　the　sun