the.world.is.flat-第50部分

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it's　100　percent。　Nobook　about　the　flat　world　would　be　honest　if　it　did　not　acknowledge　
such　con…　
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cerns；　or　acknowledge　that　there　is　some　debate　among　economists　about　whether　Ricardo　
is　still　right。　
Having　listened　to　the　arguments　on　both　sides；　though；　I　come　down　where　the　great　
majority　of　economists　come　down…that　Ricardo　is　still　right　and　that　more　American　
individuals　will　be　better　off　if　we　don't　erect　barriers　to　outsourcing；　
supply…chaining；　and　offshoring　than　if　we　do。　The　simple　message　of　this　chapter　
is　that　even　as　the　world　gets　flat；　America　as　a　whole　will　benefit　more　by　sticking　
to　the　basic　principles　of　free　trade；　as　it　always　has；　than　by　trying　to　erect　walls。　
The　main　argument　of　the　anti…outsourcing　school　is　that　in　a　flat　world；　not　only　
are　goods　tradable；　but　many　services　have　become　trad…able　as　well。　Because　of　this　


change；　America　and　other　developed　countries　could　be　headed　for　an　absolute　decline；　
not　just　a　relative　one；　in　their　economic　power　and　living　standards　unless　they　
move　to　formally　protect　certain　jobs　from　foreign　competition。　So　many　new　players　
cannot　enter　the　global　economy…in　service　and　knowledge　fields　now　dominated　by　
Americans；　Europeans；　and　Japanese…without　wages　settling　at　a　newer；　lower　
equilibrium；　this　school　argues。　
The　main　counterargument　from　free…trade/outsourcing　advocates　is　that　while　there　
may　be　a　transition　phase　in　certain　fields；　during　which　wages　are　dampened；　there　
is　no　reason　to　believe　that　this　dip　will　be　permanent　or　across　the　board；　as　long　
as　the　global　pie　keeps　growing。　To　suggest　that　it　will　be　is　to　invoke　the　so…called　
lump　of　labor　theory…the　notion　that　there　is　a　fixed　lump　of　labor　in　the　world　
and　that　once　that　lump　is　gobbled　up；　by　either　Americans　or　Indians　or　Japanese；　
there　won't　be　any　more　jobs　to　go　around。　If　we　have　the　biggest　lump　of　labor　now；　
and　then　Indians　offer　to　do　this　same　work　for　less；　they　will　get　a　bigger　piece　
of　the　lump；　and　we　will　have　less；　or　so　this　argument　goes。　
The　main　reason　the　lump　of　labor　theory　is　wrong　is　that　it　is　based　on　the　assumption　
that　everything　that　is　going　to　be　invented　has　been　invented；　and　that　therefore　
economic　competition　is　a　zero…sum　game；　a　fight　over　a　fixed　lump。　This　assumption　
misses　the　fact　that　although　jobs　are　often　lost　in　bulk…to　outsourcing　or　
offshoring…by　big　individ

ual　companies；　and　this　loss　tends　to　make　headlines；　new　jobs　are　also　being　created　
in　fives；　tens；　and　twenties　by　small　companies　that　you　can't　see。　It　often　takes　
a　leap　of　faith　to　believe　that　it　is　happening。　But　it　is　happening。　If　it　were　not；　
America's　unemployment　rate　would　be　much　higher　today　than　5　percent。　The　reason　
it　ishappening　is　that　as　lower…end　service　and　manufacturing　jobs　move　out　of　Europe；　
America；　and　Japan　to　India；　China；　and　the　former　Soviet　Empire；　the　global　pie　not　
only　grows　larger…because　more　people　have　more　income　to　spend…it　also　grows　more　
complex；　as　more　new　jobs；　and　new　specialties；　are　created。　
Let　me　illustrate　this　with　asimple　example。　Imagine　thatthere　are　only　two　countries　
in　the　world…America　and　China。　And　imagine　that　the　American　economy　has　only　100　
people。　Of　those　100　people；　80　are　well…educated　knowledge　workers　and　20　are　
less…educated　low…skilled　workers。　Now　imagine　that　the　world　goes　flat　and　America　
enters　into　a　free…trade　agreement　with　China；　which　has　1；000　people　but　is　a　less　
developed　country。　So　today　China　too　has　only　80　well…educated　knowledge　workers　
out　of　that　1；000；　and　it　has　920　low…skilled　workers。　Before　America　entered　into　
its　free…trade　agreement　with　China；　there　were　only　80　knowledge　workers　in　its　world。　
Now　there　are　160　in　our　two…country　world。　The　American　knowledge　workers　feel　like　
they　have　more　competition；　and　they　do。　But　if　you　look　at　the　prize　they　are　going　
after；　it　is　now　a　much　expanded　and　more　complex　market。　It　went　from　a　market　of　
100　people　to　a　market　of　1；100　people；　with　many　more　needs　and　wants。　So　it　should　
be　win…win　for　both　the　American　and　Chinese　knowledge　workers。　
Sure；　some　of　the　knowledge　workers　in　America　may　have　to　move　horizontally　into　
new　knowledge　jobs；　because　of　the　competition　from　China。　But　with　a　market　that　


big　and　complex；　you　can　be　sure　that　new　knowledge　jobs　will　open　up　at　decent　wages　
for　anyone　who　keeps　up　his　or　her　skills。　So　do　not　worry　about　our　knowledge　workers　
or　the　Chinese　knowledge　workers。　They　will　both　do　fine　with　this　bigger　market。　
〃What　do　you　mean；　don't　worry？〃　you　ask。　〃How　do　we　deal　with　the　fact　that　those　
eighty　knowledge　workers　from　China　will　be　willing　
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to　work　for　so　much　less　than　the　eighty　knowledge　workers　from　America？　How　will　
this　difference　get　resolved？〃　
It　won't　happen　overnight；　so　some　American　knowledge　workers　may　be　affected　in　the　
transition；　but　the　effects　will　not　be　permanent。　Here；　argues　Stanford　new　economy　
specialist　Paul　Romer；　is　what　you　need　to　understand：　The　wages　for　the　Chinese　
knowledge　workers　were　so　low　because；　although　their　skills　were　marketable　globally　
like　those　of　their　American　counterparts；　they　were　trappedinside　a　stifled　economy。　
Imagine　how　little　a　North　Korean　computer　expert　or　brain　surgeon　is　paid　inside　
that　huge　prison　of　a　nation！　But　as　the　Chinese　economy　opens　up　to　the　world　and　
reforms；　the　wages　of　Chinese　knowledge　workers　will　rise　up　to　American/world　levels。　
Ours　will　not　go　down　to　the　level　of　a　stifled；　walled…in　economy。　You　can　already　
see　this　happening　in　Bangalore；　where　competition　for　Indian　software　writers　is　
rapidly　pushing　up　their　wages　toward　American/European　levels…after　decades　of　
languishing　while　the　Indian　economy　was　closed。　It　is　why　Americans　should　be　doing　
all　they　can　to　promote　more　and　faster　economic　reform　in　India　and　China。　
Do　worry；　though；　about　the　20　low…skilled　Americans；　who　now　have　to　compete　more　
directly　with　the　920　low…skilled　Chinese。　One　reason　the　20　low…skilled　Americans　
were　paid　a　decent　wage　before　was　that；　relative　to　the　80　skilled　Americans；　there　
were　not　that　many　of　them。　Every　economy　needs　some　low…skilled　manual　labor。　But　
now　that　China　and　America　have　signed　their　free…trade　pact；　there　are　a　total　of　
940　low…skilled　workers　and　160　knowledge　workers　in　our　two…country　world。　Those　
American　low…skilled　workers　doing　fungible　jobs…jobs　that　can　easily　be　moved　to　
China…will　have　a　problem。　There　is　no　denying　this。　Their　wages　are　certain　to　be　
depressed。　In　order　to　maintain　or　improve　their　living　standards；　they　will　have　
to　move　vertically；　not　horizontally。　They　will　have　to　upgrade　their　education　and　
upgrade　their　knowledge　skills　so　that　they　can　occupy　one　of　the　new　jobs　sure　to　
be　created　in　the　much　expanded　United　States…China　market。　（In　Chapter　8　I　will　talk　
about　our　society's　obligation　to　ensure　that　everyone　gets　a　chance　to　acquire　those　
skills。）　
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As　Romer　notes；　we　know　from　the　history　of　our　own　country　that　an　increase　in　
knowledge　workers　does　not　necessarily　lead　to　a　decrease　in　their　pay　the　way　it　
does　with　low…skilled　workers。　From　the　1960s　to　the　1980s；　the　supply　of　
college…educated　workers　grew　dramatically；　and　yet　their　wages　grew　even　faster。　
Because　as　the　pie　grew　in　size　and　complexity；　so　too　did　people's　wants；　and　this　
increased　the　demand　for　people　able　to　do　complex　work　and　specialized　tasks。　
Romer　explains　this　in　part　by　the　fact　that　〃there　is　a　difference　between　idea…based　
goods　and　physical　goods。〃　If　you　are　a　knowledge　worker　making　and　selling　some　kind　


of　idea…based　product…consulting　or　financial　services　or　music　or　software　or　
marketing　or　design　or　new　drugs…the　bigger　the　market　is；　the　more　people　there　are　
out　there　to　whom　you　can　sell　your　product。　And　the　bigger　the　market；　the　more　new　
specialties　and　niches　it　will　create。　If　you　come　up　with　the　next　Windows　or　Viagra；　
you　can　potentially　sell　one　to　everyone　in　the　world。　So　idea…based　workers　do　well　
in　globalization；　and　fortunately　America　as　a　whole　has　more　idea…driven　workers　
than　any　country　in　the　world。　
But　if　you　are　selling　manual　labor…or　a　piece　of　lumber　or　a　slab　of　steel…the　value　
of　what　you　have　to　sell　does　not　necessarily　increase　when　the　market　expands；　and　
it　may　decrease；　argues　Romer。　There　are　only　so　many　factories　that　will　buy　your　
manual　labor；　and　there　are　many　more　people　selling　it。　What　the　manual　laborer　has　
to　sell　can　be　bought　by　only　one　factory　or　one　consumer　at　a　time；　explains　Romer；　
while　what　the　software　writer　or　drug　inventor　has　to　sell　…idea…based　products…can　
be　sold　to　everyone　in　the　global　market　at　once。　
That　is　why　America；　as　a　whole；　will　do　fine　in　a　flat　world　with　free　trade…provided　
it　continues　to　churn　out　knowledge　workers　who　are　able　to　produce　idea…based　goods　
that　can　be　sold　globally　and　who　are　able　to　fill　the　knowledge　jobs　that　will　be　
created　as　we　not　only　expand　the　global　economy　but　connect　all　the　knowledge　pools　
in　the　world。　There　may　be　a　limit　to　the　number　of　good　factory　jobs　in　the　world；　
but　there　is　no　limit　to　the　number　of　idea…generated　jobs　in　the　world。　
If　we　go　from　a　world　in　which　there　were　fifteen　drug　companies　and　fifteen　software　
companies　in　America　（thirty　in　all）　and　two　drug　companies　and　two　software　companies　
in　China　（four　in　all）　to　a　world　

in　which　there　are　thirty　drug　and　software　companies　in　America　and　thirty　drug　and　
software　companies　in　China；　it　is　going　to　mean　more　innovation；　more　cures；　more　
new　products；　more　niches　to　specialize　in；　and　many　more　people　with　higher　incomes　
to　buy　those　products。　
〃The　pie　keeps　growing　because　things　that　look　like　wants　today　are　needs　tomorrow；〃　
argued　Marc　Andreessen；　the　Netscape　cofounder；　who　helped　to　ignite　a　whole　new　
industry；　e…commerce；　that　now　employs　millions　of　specialists　around　the　world；　
specialists　whose　jobs　weren't　even　imagined　when　Bill　Clinton　became　president。　I　
like　going　to　coffee　sho