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ons�察�as�察�in the cultivation of any of those arts which have been by way of eminence termed useful�察�direct their endeavours to any of those departments in which their utility shines most conspicuous and indubitable�察�upon all such persons as�察�in the line of any of their pursuits�察�aim at any thing that can be called improvement�察�whether it consist in the production of any new article adapted to man's use�察�or in the meliorating the quality�察�or diminishing the expence�察�of any of those which are already known to us。 It falls�察�in short�察�upon every application of the human powers�察�in which ingenuity stands in need of wealth for its assistant。     High and extraordinary rates of interest�察�how little soever adapted to the situation of the prodigal�察�are certainly�察�as you very justly observe�察�particularly adapted to the situation of the projector�此�not however to that of the imprudent projector only�察�nor even to his case more than another's�察�but to that of the prudent and wellgrounded projector�察�if the existence of such a being were to be supposed。 Whatever be the prudence or other qualities of the project�察�in whatever circumstance the novelty of it may lie�察�it has this circumstance against it�察�viz。 that it is new。 But the rates of interest�察�the highest rates allowed�察�are�察�as you expressly say they are�察�and as you would have them to be�察�adjusted to the situation which the sort of trader is in�察�whose trade runs in the old channels�察�and to the best security which such channels can afford。 But in the nature of things�察�no new trade�察�no trade carried on in any new channel�察�can afford a security equal to that which may be afforded by a trade carried on in any of the old ones�此�in whatever light the matter might appear to perfect intelligence�察�in the eye of every prudent person�察�exerting the best powers of judging which the fallible condition of the human faculties affords�察�the novelty of any commercial adventure will oppose a chance of ill success�察�superadded to every one which could attend the same�察�or any other�察�adventure�察�already tried�察�and proved to be profitable by experience。     The limitation of the profit that is to be made�察�by lending money to persons embarked in trade�察�will render the monied man more anxious�察�you may say�察�about the goodness of his security�察�and accordingly more anxious to satisfy himself respecting the prudence of a project in the carrying on of which the money is to be employed�察�than he would be otherwise�此�and in this way it may be thought that these laws have a tendency to pick out the good projects from the bad�察�and favour the former at the expence of the latter。 The first of these positions I admit�此�but I can never admit the consequence to follow。 A prudent man�察。�I mean nothing more than a man of ordinary prudence�� a prudent man acting under the sole governance of prudential motives�察�I still say will not�察�in these circumstances�察�pick out the good projects from the bad�察�for he will not meddle with projects at all。 He will pick out old´established trades from all sorts of projects�察�good and bad�察�for with a new project�察�be it ever so promisiug�察�he never will have any thing to do。 By every man that has money�察�five per cent。 or whatever be the highest legal rate�察�is at all times�察�and always will be�察�to be had upon the very best security�察�that the best and most prosperous old´established trade can afford。 Traders in general�察�I believe�察�it is commonly understood�察�are well enough inclined to enlarge their capital�察�as far as all the money they can borrow at the highest legal rate�察�while that rate is so low as 5 per cent。�察�will enlarge it。 How it is possible therefore for a project�察�be it ever so promising�察�to afford�察�to a lender at any such rate of interest�察�terms equally advantageous�察�upon the whole�察�with those he might be sure of obtaining from an old´established business�察�is more than I can conceive。 loans of money may certainly chance�察�now and then�察�to find their way into the pockets of projectors as well as of other men�此�but when this happens it must be through incautiousness�察�or friendship�察�or the expectation of some collateral benefit�察�and not through any idea of the advantageousness of the transaction�察�in the light of a pecuniary bargain。     I should not expect to see it alledged。 that there is any thing�察�that should render the number of well´grounded projects�察�in comparison of the ill´grounded�察�less in time future�察�than it has been in time past。 I am sure at least that I know of no reasons why it should be so�察�though I know of some reasons�察�which I shall beg leave to submit to you by and by�察�which appear to me pretty good ones�察�why the advantage should be on the side of futurity。 But�察�unless the stock of well´grounded projects is already spent�察�and the whole stock of ill´grounded projects that ever were possible�察�are to be looked for exclusively in the time to come�察�the censure you have passed on projectors�察�measuring still the extent of it by that of the operation of the laws in the defence of which it is employed�察�looks as far backward as forward�此�it condemns as rash and ill´grounded�察�all those projects�此�by which our species have been successively advanced from that state in which acorns were their food�察�and raw hides their cloathing�察�to the state in which it stands at present�此�for think�察�Sir�察�let me beg of you�察�whether whatever is now the routine of trade was not�察�at its commencement�察�project�拭�whether whatever is now establishment�察�was not�察�at one time�察�innovation�拭    �How it is that the tribe of well´grounded projects�察�and of prudent projectors ��if by this time I may have your leave for applying this epithet to some at least among the projectors of time past���察�have managed to struggle through the obstacles which the laws in question have been holding in their way�察�it is neither easy to know�察�nor necessary to enquire。 Manifest enough�察�I think�察�it must be by this time�察�that difficulties�察�and those not inconsiderable ones�察�those laws must have been holding up�察�in the way of projects of all sorts�察�of improvement ��if I may say so�� in every line�察�so long as they have had existence�此�reasonable therefore it must be to conclude�察�that�察�had it not been for these discouragements�察�projects of all sorts�察�well´grounded and successful ones�察�as well as others�察�would have been more numerous than they have been�此�and that accordingly�察�on the other hand�察�as soon�察�if ever�察�as these discouragements shall be removed�察�projects of all sorts�察�and among the rest�察�well´grounded and successful ones�察�will be more numerous than they would otherwise have been�此�in short�察�that�察�as�察�without these discouragements�察�the progress of mankind in the career of prosperity�察�would have been greater than it has been under them in time past�察�so�察�were they to be removed�察�it would be at least proportionably greater in time future。     That I have done you no injustice�察�in assigning to your idea of projectors so great a latitude�察�and that the unfavourable opinion you have professed to entertain of them is not confined to the above passage�察�might be made�察�I think�察�pretty apparent�察�if it be material�察�by another passage in the tenth chapter of your first book。��27*�� ;The establishment of any new manufacture�察�of any new branch of commerce�察�or of any new practice in agriculture�察─�all these you comprehend by name under the list of ;projects;�此�of every one of them you observe�察�that ;it is a speculation from which the projector promises himself extraordinary profits。 These profits ��you add�� are sometimes very great�察�and sometimes�察�more frequently perhaps�察�they are quite otherwise。 but in general they bear no regular proportion to those of other old trades in the neighbourhood。 If the project succeeds�察�they are commonly at first very high。 When the trade or practice becomes thoroughly established and well known�察�the competition reduces them to the level of other trades。; But on this head I forbear to insist�此�nor should I have taken this liberty of giving you back your own words�察�but in the hope of seeing some alteration made in them in your next edition�察�should I be fortunate enough to find my sentiments confirmed by your's。 In other respects�察�what is essential to the publick�察�is�察�what the error is in the sentiments entertained�察�not who it is that entertains them。     I know not whether the observations which I have been troubling you with�察�will be thought to need�察�or whether they will be thought to receive�察�any additional support from those comfortable positions�察�of which you have made such good and such frequent use�察�concerning the constant tendency of mankind to get forward in the career of prosperity�察�the prevalence of prudence over imprudence�察�in the sum of private conduct at least�察�and the superior fitness of individuals for managing their own pecuniary concerns�察�of which they know the particulars and the circumstances�察�in comparison of the legislator�察�who can have no such knowledge。 I will make the experiment�此�for�察�so long as I have the mortification to see you on the opposite side�察�I can never think the ground I have taken strong enough�察�while any thing remains that appears capable of rendering it still stronger。     ;With regard to misconduct�察�the number of prudent and successful undertakings; ��you observe��28*���� ;is every where much greater than that of injudicious and unsuccessful ones。 After all our complaints of the frequency of bankruptcies�察�the unhappy men who fall into this misfortune make but a very small part of the whole number engaged in trade�察�and all other sorts of business�察�not much more perhaps than one in a thousand。;     'Tis in support of this position that you appeal to history for the constant and uninterrupted progress of mankind�察�in our island at least�察�in the career of prosperity�此�calling upon any one who should entertain a doubt of the fact�察�to divide the history into any number of periods�察�from the time of Caesar's visit down to the present�此�proposing for instance the respective aeras of the Restoration�察�the Accession of Elizabeth�察�that of Henry VII�察�the Norman Conquest�察�and the Heptarchy�察�and putting it to the sceptic to find out�察�if he can�察�among all these periods�察�any one at which the condition of the country was not more prosperous than at the period immediately preceding it�察�spite of so many wars�察�and fires�察�and plagues�察�and all other public calami

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