tc.thebearandthedragon-第117部分

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nd　that　amounts　to　the　same　thing。　Look　for　the　networks　to　do　stories　about　the　Republic　of　China；　and　how　upset　they　are　with　all　this　crap　in　Beijing；　how　they　don't　want　to　be　tarred　with　the　same　brush　and　all　that；〃　the　Chief　of　Staff　said。　〃You　know；　'Yes；　we　are　Chinese；　but　we　believe　in　human　rights　and　freedom　of　religion。'　That　sort　of　thing。　It's　the　smart　move。　They　have　some　good　PR　advisers　here　in　D。C。　Hell；　I　probably　know　some　of　them；　and　if　I　were　on　the　payroll；　that's　what　I　would　advise。〃
　That's　when　the　phone　rang。　It　was　Ryan's　private　line；　the　one　that　usually　bypassed　the　secretaries。　Jack　lifted　it。　〃Yeah？〃
　〃Jack；　it's　George　across　the　street。　Got　a　minute？　I　want　to　show　you　something；　buddy。〃
　〃Sure。　e　on　over。〃　Jack　hung　up　and　turned　to　Arnie。　〃Sec…Treas；〃　he　explained。　〃Says　it's　important。〃　The　President　paused。　〃Arnie？〃
　〃Yeah？〃
　〃How　much　maneuvering　room　do　I　have　with　this？〃
　〃The　Chinese？〃　Arnie　asked；　getting　a　nod。　〃Not　a　hell　of　a　lot；　Jack。　Sometimes　the　people　themselves　decide　what　our　policy　is。　And　the　people　will　be　making　policy　now　by　voting　with　their　pocketbooks。　Next　we'll　see　some　panies　announce　that　they're　suspending　their　mercial　contracts　with　the　PRC。　The　Chinese　already　fucked　Boeing　over；　and　in　the　full　light　of　day；　which　wasn't　real　smart。　Now　the　people　out　there　will　want　to　fuck　them　back。　You　know；　there　are　times　when　the　average　Joe　Citizen　stands　up　on　his　hind　feet　and　gives　the　world　the　finger。　When　that　happens；　it's　your　job　mainly　to　follow　them；　not　to　lead　them；〃　the　Chief　of　Staff　concluded。　His　Secret　Service　code　name　was　CARPENTER；　and　he'd　just　constructed　a　box　for　his　President　to　stay　inside。
　Jack　nodded　and　stubbed　out　the　smoke。　He　might　be　the　Most　Powerful　Man　in　the　World；　hut　his　power　came　from　the　people；　and　as　it　was　theirs　to　give；　it　was　also　sometimes　theirs　to　exercise。
　Few　people　could　simply　open　the　door　to　the　Oval　Office　and　walk　in；　but　George　Winston　was　one　of　them；　mainly　because　the　Secret　Service　belonged　to　him。　Mark　Gant　was　with　him；　looking　as　though　he'd　just　run　a　marathon　chased　by　a　dozen　armed　and　angry　Marines　in　jeeps。
　〃Hey；　Jack。〃
　〃George。　Mark；　you　look　like　hell；〃　Ryan　said。　〃Oh；　you　just　flew　in；　didn't　you？〃
　〃Is　this　Washington　or　Shanghai？〃　Gant　offered；　as　rather　a　wan　joke。
　〃We　took　the　tunnel。　Jesus；　have　you　seen　the　demonstrators　outside？　I　think　they　want　you　to　nuke　Beijing；〃　SecTreas　observed。　The　President　just　pointed　at　his　bank　of　television　sets　by　way　of　an　answer。
　〃Hell；　why　are　they　demonstrating　here？　I'm　on　their　side…at　least　I　think　I　am。　Anyway；　what　brings　you　over？〃
　〃Check　this　out。〃　Winston　nodded　to　Gant。
　〃Mr。　President；　these　are　the　PRC's　current　currency　accounts。　We　keep　tabs　on　currency　trading　worldwide　to　make　sure　we　know　where　the　dollar　is…which　means　we　pretty　much　know　where　all　the　hard　currency　is　in　the　world。〃
　〃Okay。〃　Ryan　knew　about　that…sort　of。　He　didn't　worry　much　about　it；　since　the　dollar　was　in　pretty　good　shape；　and　the　nonsqueaky　wheel　didn't　need　any　grease。　〃So？〃
　〃So；　the　PRC's　liquidity　situation　is　in　the　shitter；〃　Gant　reported。　〃Maybe　that's　why　they　were　so　pushy　in　the　trade　talks。　If　so；　they　picked　the　wrong　way　to　approach　us。　They　demanded　instead　of　asked。〃
　Ryan　looked　down　the　columns　of　numbers。　〃Damn；　where　have　they　been　dumping　all　their　money？〃
　〃Buying　military　hardware。　France　and　Russia；　mostly；　but　a　lot　went　to　Israel；　too。〃　It　was　not　widely　known　that　the　PRC　had　spent　a　considerable　sum　of　money　in　Israel；　mainly　paid　to　IDI…Israel　Defense　Industries…to　buy　American…designed　hardware　manufactured　under　license　in　Israel。　It　was　stuff　the　Chinese　could　not　purchase　directly　from　America；　including　guns　for　their　tanks　and　air…to…air　missiles　for　their　fighter　aircraft。　America　had　winked　at　the　transactions　for　years。　In　conducting　this　business；　Israel　had　turned　its　back　on　Taiwan；　despite　the　fact　that　both　countries　had　produced　their　nuclear　weapons　as　a　joint　venture；　back　when　they'd　stuck　together…along　with　South　Africa…as　international　pariahs　with　no　other　friends　in　that　particular　area。　In　polite　pany；　it　was　called　realpolitik。　In　other　areas　of　human　activity；　it　was　called　fuck　your　buddy。
　〃And？〃　Ryan　asked。
　〃And　they've　spent　their　entire　trade　surplus　this　way；〃　Gant　reported。　〃All　of　it；　mainly　on　short…term　purchase　items；　but　some　long…term　as　well；　and　for　the　long…term　stuff　they　had　to　pay　cash　up　front　because　of　the　nature　of　the　transactions。　The　producers　need　the　cash　to　run　the　production；　and　they　don't　want　to　get　stuck　holding　the　bag。　Not　too　many　people　need　five　thousand　tank　guns；〃　Gant　explained。　〃The　market　is　kinda　exclusive。〃
　〃So？〃
　〃So；　China　is　essentially　out　of　cash。　And　they　have　real　short…term　cash　needs。　Like　oil；〃　TELESCOPE　went　on。　〃China's　a　net　importer　of　oil。　Production　in　their　domestic　fields　falls　well　short；　even　though　their　needs　are　not　really　that　great。　Not　too　many　Chinese　citizens　own　cars。　They　have　enough　cash　for　three　months'　worth　of　oil；　and　then　they　e　up　short。　The　international　oil　market　demands　prompt　payment。　They　can　skate　for　a　month；　maybe　six　weeks；　but　after　that；　the　tankers　will　turn　around　in　mid…ocean　and　go　somewhere　else…they　can　do　that；　you　know…and　then　the　PRC　runs　out。　It'll　be　like　running　into　a　wall；　sir。　Smack。　No　more　oil；　and　then　their　country　starts　ing　to　a　stop；　including　their　military；　which　is　their　largest　oil　consumer。　They've　been　running　unusually　high　for　some　years　because　of　increased　activity　in　their　maneuvers　and　training　and　stuff。　They　probably　have　strategic　reserves；　but　we　don't　know　exactly　how　much。　And　that　can　run　out；　too。　We've　been　expecting　them　to　make　a　move　on　the　Spratly　Islands。　There's　oil　there；　and　they've　been　making　noises　about　it　off　and　on　for　about　ten　years；　but　the　Philippines　and　other　countries　in　the　area　have　made　claims；　too；　and　they　probably　expect　us　to　side　with　the　Philippines　for　historical　reasons。　Not　to　mention；　Seventh　Fleet　is　still　the　biggest　kid　on　the　block　in　that　part　of　the　world。〃
　〃Yeah。〃　Ryan　nodded。　〃If　it　came　to　a　showdown；　the　Philippines　appear　to　have　the　best　claim　on　the　islands；　and　we　would　back　them　up。　We've　shed　blood　together　in　the　past；　and　that　counts。　Go　on。〃
　〃So；　John　Chinaman　is　short　of　oil；　and　he　may　not　have　the　cash　to　pay　for　it；　especially　if　our　trade　with　them　goes　down　the　toilet。　They　need　our　dollars。　The　yuan　isn't　very　strong　anyway。　International　trading　is　also　done　in　dollars；　and　as　I　just　told　you；　sir；　they've　spent　most　of　them。〃
　〃What　are　you　telling　me？〃
　〃Sir；　the　PRC　is　just　about　bankrupt。　In　a　month　or　so；　they're　going　to　find　that　out；　and　it's　going　to　be　a　bit　of　a　shock　for　them。〃
　〃When　did　we　find　this　out？〃
　〃That's　my　doing；　Jack；〃　the　Secretary　of　the　Treasury　said。　〃I　called　up　these　documents　earlier　today；　and　then　I　had　Mark　go　over　them。　He's　our　best　man　for　economic　modeling；　even　whacked　out　with　jet　lag。〃
　〃So；　we　can　squeeze　them　on　this？〃
　〃That's　one　option。〃
　〃What　if　these　demonstrations　take　hold？〃
　Gant　and　Winston　shrugged　simultaneously。　〃That's　where　psychology　enters　into　the　equation；〃　said　Winston。　〃We　can　predict　it　to　some　extent　on　Wall　Street…that's　how　I　made　most　of　my　money…but　psychoanalyzing　a　country　is　beyond　my　ken。　That's　your　job；　pal。　I　just　run　your　accounting　office　across　the　street。〃
　〃I　need　more　than　that；　George。〃
　Another　shrug。　〃If　the　average　citizen　boycotts　Chinese　goods；　and/or　if　American　panies　who　do　business　over　there　start　trimming　their　sails…〃
　〃That's　damned　likely；〃　Gant　interjected。　〃This　has　got　to　have　a　lot　of　CEOs　shitting　their　pants。〃
　〃Well；　if　that　happens；　the　Chinese　get　one　in　the　guts；　and　it's　going　to　hurt；　big　time；〃　TRADER　concluded。
　And　how　will　they　react　to　that？　Ryan　wondered。　He　punched　his　phone　button。　〃Ellen；　I　need　one。〃　His　secretary　appeared　in　a　flash　and　handed　him　a　cigarette。　Ryan　lit　it　and　thanked　her　with　a　smile　and　a　nod。
　〃Have　you　talked　this　one　over　with　State　yet？〃
　A　shake　of　the　head。　〃No；　wanted　to　show　it　to　you　first。〃
　〃Hmm。　Mark；　what　did　you　make　of　the　negotiations？〃
　〃They're　the　most　arrogant　sons　of　bitches　I've　ever　seen。　I　mean；　I've　met　all　sorts　of　big　shots　in　my　time；　movers　and　shakers；　but　even　the　worst　of　them　know　when　they　need　my　money　to　do　business；　and　when　they　know　that；　their　manners　get　better。　When　you　shoot　a　gun；　you　try　to　make　sure　you　don't　have　it　aimed　at　your　own　dick。〃
　That　made　Ryan　laugh；　while　Arnie　cringed。　You　weren't　supposed　to　talk　that　way　to　the　President　of　the　United　States；　but　some　of　these　people　knew　that　you　could　talk　that　way　to　John　Patrick　Ryan；　the　man。
　〃By　the　way；　along　those　lines；　I　liked　what　you　told　that　Chinese　diplomat。〃
　〃What's　that；　sir？〃
　〃Their　dicks　aren't　big　enough　to　get　in　a　pissing　contest　with　us。　Nice　turn　of　phrase；　if　not　exactly　diplomatic。〃
　〃How　did　you　know　that？〃　Gant　asked；　the　surprise　showing　on　his　face。　〃I　never　repeated　that　to　anybody；　not　even　to　that　jerk　Rutledge。〃
　〃Oh；　we　have　ways；〃　Jack　answered；　suddenly　realizing　that　he'd　revealed　something　from　a　partment　named　SORGE。　Oops。
　〃Sounds　like　something　you　say　at　the　New　York　Athletic　Club；〃　SecTreas　observed。　〃But　only　if　you're　four　feet　or　so　away　from　the　guy。〃
　　〃But　it　appears　it's　true。　At　least　in　monetary　terms。　So；　we　have　a　gun　we　can　point　at　their　heads？〃
　〃Yes；　sir；　we　sure　do；〃　Gant　answered。　〃It　might　take　them　a　month　to　figure　it　out；　but　they　won't　be　able　to　run　away　from　it　for　very　long。〃
　〃Okay；　make　sure　State　and　the　Agency　find　this　out。　And；　oh；　tell　CIA　that　they're　supposed　to　get　this　stuff　to　me　first。　Intelligence　estimates　are　their　job。〃
　〃They　have　an　economics　unit；　but　they're　not　all　that　good；〃　Gant　told　the　others。　〃No　surprise。　The　smart　people　in　this　area　work　The　Street；　or　maybe　academia。　You　can　make　more　money　at　Harvard　Business　School　than　you　can　in　government　service。〃
　〃And　talent　goes　where　the　money　is；〃　Jack　agreed。　Junior　partners　at　medium…sized　law　firms　made　more　than　the　P