tc.redstormrising-第16部分

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ary　discipline　at　the　subofficer　level。　As　you　can　imagine；　this　places　an　enormous　strain　on　the　junior　officers；　and　in　many　ways　forces　the　officers　to　live　with　some　things　that　they　clearly　do　not　and　cannot　like。〃
〃You're　saying　that　their　military　formations　operate　under　the　principle　of　organized　anarchy；〃　observed　the　mander　of　Strike　Fleet　Atlantic。　〃Their　Navy　sure　as　hell　doesn't。〃
〃That　is　true；　sir。　As　we　know；　their　seamen　are　in　for　three　years　instead　of　two；　and　their　situation；　while　similar；　has　many　differences　from　that　of　the　Soviet　Army。　And　it　would　seem　that　this　situation　is　ending　in　the　Soviet　Army　as　well；　that　sub…unit　discipline　is　being　quickly　and　vigorously　reestablished。〃
〃Just　how　many　privates　got　themselves　popped？〃　asked　the　general　manding　2nd　Marine　Division。
〃Eleven；　sir；　listed　by　name　and　unit。　That　information　is　in　your　handout。　Most　were　in　their　'fourth　class；'　meaning　the　last　six　months　of　their　enlistment　period。〃
〃Did　the　article　you　read　make　general　conclusions？〃　CINCLANT　asked。
〃No；　Admiral。　There　is　an　unwritten　rule　in　Soviet　publications；　both　military　and　civilian；　that　you　can　criticize；　but　not　generalize。　What　that　means　is　that　individual　screwups　can　be　identified　and　castigated　at　length；　but　for　political　reasons　it　is　unacceptable　to　make　general　criticisms　applying　to　a　whole　institution。　You　see；　a　critique　that　pointed　to　an　all…pervasive　condition　would　ipso　facto　critique　Soviet　society　as　a　whole；　and　thereby　the　munist　Party；　which　oversees　every　aspect　of　Soviet　life。　It　is　a　thin；　but　to　them　a　philosophically　important；　distinction。　In　fact；　when　individual　malefactors　are　named；　the　system　as　a　whole　is　being　criticized；　but　in　a　politically　acceptable　way。　This　article　is　a　signal　to　every　officer；　NCO；　and　private　soldier　in　the　Soviet　military：　the　times；　they　are　a　changin'。　The　question　we've　been　asking　over　in　Intentions　is；　Why？
〃It　would　appear　that　this　is　not　an　isolated　case　of　changing　times。〃　Toland　flipped　on　an　overhead　projector　and　set　a　view　graph　in　place。　〃Within　the　Soviet　Navy；　surface…to…surface　missile　live…fires　are　up　seventy　percent　from　last　year；　not　quite　an　all…time　high；　but　as　you　can　see　from　this　graph；　pretty　close　to　it。　Submarine　deployments；　mainly　those　for　diesel　subs；　are　down；　and　intelligence　reports　tell　us　that　an　unusually　high　number　of　submarines　are　in　the　yards　for　what　appears　to　be　routine　but　unscheduled　maintenance。　We　have　reason　to　believe　that　this　situation　is　connected　with　a　nationwide　shortage　of　lead…acid　batteries。　It　appears　likely　that　all　Soviet　submarines　are　undergoing　battery　replacement；　and　that　regular　battery　production　is　being　redirected　to　militarily　important　segments　of　the　Soviet　economy。
〃We　have　also　noted　higher　levels　of　activity　by　Soviet　naval　surface　forces；　naval　aviation　units　and　other　long…range　aircraft　formations；　again　with　increased　weapons　exercises。　Finally；　there　has　been　an　increase　in　the　time…away…from…port　days　of　Soviet　surface　batants。　Although　this　number　represents　a　small　increase；　operational　patterns　are　different　from　what　we've　bee　accustomed　to。　Instead　of　sailing　from　one　point　to　another　and　just　dropping　the　hook；　their　surface　batants　appear　to　be　running　more　realistic　exercises。　They've　done　this　before；　but　never　without　announcing　it。
〃So　what　we　are　seeing　in　the　Soviet　Navy　is　an　extensive　stand…down　acpanied　by　increasing　tempos　in　the　actual　exercises　that　are　being　run。　Matched　with　what　we're　seeing　in　the　Soviet　Army　and　Air　Force；　it　appears　that　their　military　readiness　is　being　increased　across　the　board。　At　the　same　time　that　they　are　proposing　reductions　in　strategic　nuclear　weapons；　their　conventional　forces　are　rapidly　improving　their　ability　to　engage　in；　bat　operations。　We　in　Intentions　regard　this　bination　of　factors　as　potentially　dangerous。〃
〃Looks　kind　of　hazy　to　me；〃　an　admiral　said　around　his　pipe。　〃How　are　we　supposed　to　persuade　somebody　that　this　means　anything？〃
〃A　good　question；　sir。　Any　of　these　indicators　taken　in　isolation　would　appear　entirely　logical　in　and　of　itself。　What　concerns　us　is　why　they　are　all　happening　at　once。　The　problem　of　manpower　utilization　in　the　Soviet　military　has　been　around　for　generations。　The　problem　of　training　norms；　and　integrity　in　their　officer　corps；　is　not　exactly　new　either。　What　caught　my　interest　was　the　battery　thing。　We　are　seeing　the　beginnings　of　what　could　bee　a　major　disruption　within　the　Soviet　economy。　The　Russians　plan　everything　centrally　in　their　economy；　and　on　a　political　basis　as　well。　The　main　factory　that　makes　batteries　is　operating　three　shifts　instead　of　the　usual　two；　so　production　is　up；　but　supply　in　the　civilian　economy　is　down。　In　any　case；　Admiral；　you're　correct。　Individually；　these　things　mean　nothing　at　all。　It's　only　when　taken　in　bination　that　we　see　anything　to　be　concerned　about。〃
〃But　you're　concerned；〃　CINCLANT　said。
〃Yes；　sir。〃
〃Me　too；　son。　What　else　are　you　doing　about　it？〃
〃We　have　an　inquiry　into　SACEUR　to　notify　us　of　anything　they　think　is　unusual　in　the　current　activities　of　the　Group　of　Soviet　Forces　in　Germany。　The　Norwegians　have　increased　their　surveillance　in　the　Barents　Sea。　We're　starting　to　get　more　access　to　satellite　photography　of　ports　and　fleet　bases。　DIA　has　been　informed　of　our　data；　and　is　running　its　own　investigation。　More　bits　and　pieces　are　beginning　to　show　up。〃
〃What　about　CIA？'
〃DIA　is　handling　that　for　us　through　their　headquarters　at　Arlington　Hall。〃
〃When　do　their　spring　maneuvers　begin？〃　CINCLANT　asked。
〃Sir；　the　annual　Warsaw　Pact　spring　exercise…they're　calling　it　Progress　this　year…is　scheduled　to　begin　in　three　weeks。　There　are　indications　that　in　keeping　with　the　spirit　of　d？tente；　the　Soviets　will　invite　NATO　military　representatives　to　keep　an　eye　on　things；　and　Western　news　crews　as　well…〃
〃I'll　tell　you　what's　scary　about　this；〃　mander；　Naval　Surface　Forces；　Atlantic；　grunted。　〃All　of　a　sudden　they've　started　doing　what　we've　always　asked　them　to　do。〃
〃Try　selling　that　to　the　papers；〃　mander；　Naval　Air　Forces；　Atlantic；　suggested。
〃Remendations？〃　CINCLANT　asked　his　operations　officer。
〃We're　already　running　a　pretty　active　training　schedule　ourselves。　I　don't　suppose　it　would　hurt　to　beef　that　up。　Toland；　you　said　that　what　tipped　you　to　this　situation　was　this　battery　thing　in　the　civilian　economy。　Are　you　looking　for　other　economic　disruptions？〃
〃Yes；　sir；　we　are。　That's　DIA's　brief；　and　my　contact　in　Arlington　Hall　is　also　asking　CIA　to　run　some　additional　checks。　If　I　might　amplify　on　this　point；　gentlemen；　the　Soviet　economy　is　centrally　managed；　as　I　said　earlier。　Those　industrial　plans　they　have　are　fairly　rigid。　They　don't　deviate　from　them　lightly；　since　those　deviations　tend　to　have　a　ripple　effect　throughout　the　economy　as　a　whole。　'Disruption'　may　be　too　strong　a　word　at　present…〃
〃You　just　have　a　nasty　suspicion；〃　CINCLANT　said。　〃Fine；　Toland；　that's　what　we　pay　you　for。　Good　brief。〃
Bob　took　his　cue　and　left。　The　admirals　stayed　put　to　talk　things　over。
It　was　a　relief　to　leave。　Much　as　he　liked　the　attention；　being　examined　by　senior　officials　like　a　tissue　culture　on　a　petrie　dish　could　make　you　old　rather　quickly。　He　walked　through　a　covered　walkway　back　to　his　building；　and　watched　the　late　arrivals　wander　about　looking　for　parking　places。　The　grass　was　greening　up。　A　civilian　crew　was　mowing　while　another　was　fertilizing。　The　shrubbery　was　already　beginning　to　grow；　and　he　hoped　they'd　let　the　bushes　expand　a　bit　before　they　trimmed　them　back　again。　Norfolk　could　be　pleasant　in　the　spring；　he　knew；　with　the　fragrance　of　azaleas　on　the　salt…laden　air。　He　wondered　how　pleasant　it　would　be　in　summer。
〃How'd　it　go？〃　Chuck　asked。
Toland　stripped　off　his　jacket　and　allowed　his　knees　to　sag　theatrically　in　front　of　the　Marine。　〃Pretty　well。　Nobody　snapped　my　head　off。〃
〃Didn't　want　to　worry　you　before；　but　there's　people　in　there　been　known　to　do　that。　They　say　CINCLANT　likes　nothing　better　for　breakfast　than　fried　mander　garnished　with　diced　lieutenant。〃
〃Big　surprise。　He's　an　admiral；　isn't　he？　I've　done　briefs　before；　Chuck。〃　All　Marines　thought　all　sailors　were　wimps；　Toland　reminded　himself。　No　sense　giving　Chuck　more　encouragement　for　that　view。
〃Any　conclusions？〃
〃CINCLANT　ops　talked　about　increasing　training　schedules。　I　got　excused　right　after　that。〃
〃Good。　We　ought　to　have　a　packet　of　satellite　shots　later　today。　There　are　some　questions　ing　in　from　Langley　and　Arlington。　Nothing　firm　yet；　but　I　think　they　might　be　stumbling　onto　some　odd　data。　If　it　turns　out　you're　right；　Bob…well；　you　know　how　it　works。〃
〃Sure。　Somebody　closer　to　D。C。　will　make　The　Discovery。　Shit；　I　don't　care　about　that；　Chuck；　I　want　to　be　wrong！　I　want　this　whole　friggin'　thing　to　blow　over；　then　I　can　go　home　and　play　in　my　garden。〃
〃Well；　maybe　I　got　some　good　news　for　you。　We　got　our　TV　tied　into　a　new　satellite　receiver。　I　talked　the　munications　guys　into　letting　us　tap　into　Russian　television　to　catch　their　evening　news。　We　won't　learn　anything　hard；　but　it's　a　good　way　of　catching　moods。　Just　tried　it　out　before　you　got　here；　and　found　out　Ivan's　running　a　film　festival　for　all　of　Sergey　Eisenstein's　classics。　Tonight；　The　Battleship　Potemkin；　followed　by　all　the　others；　and　ending　on　May　30　with　Alexander　Nevsky。
〃Oh？　I　have　Nevsky　on　tape。〃
〃Yeah；　well；　they　took　the　original　negatives；　flew　them　to　EMI　in　London　to　make　digitalized　masters；　and　rerecorded　the　original　Prokofiev　score　on　a　Dolby　format。　We'll　be　making　tapes。　Your　machine　VHS　or　Beta？〃
〃VHS。〃　Toland　laughed。　〃Maybe　this　job　has　a　few　bennies　after　all。　So；　what　new　stuff　do　we　have？〃
Lowe　handed　him　a　six…inch　file　of　documents。　Time　to　get　back　to　work。　Toland　settled　in　his　chair　and　began　sorting　through　the　papers。

KIEV；　THE　UKRAINE
〃Things　are　looking　better；　rade；〃　Alekseyev　reported。　〃Discipline　in　the　officer　corps　has　improved　immeasurably。　The　exercise　with　261st　Guards　went　very　well　this　morning。〃
〃And　173rd　Guards？〃　CINC…Southwest　asked。
〃They　too　need　further　work；　but　they　should　be　ready　in　time；〃　Alekseyev　said　confidently。　〃The　officers　are　acting　like　officers。　Now　we　n